Antonia Colibasanu
Introduction
Several major developments are now affecting the Eurasian security paradigm. First, Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine defied the 1990s consensus that fighting in Europe had ended and peace was the new normal. On the contrary, war has returned to the continent. Second, there are obvious signs from across the Atlantic that the American commitment to European security cannot be taken for granted, particularly given that other global concerns may put Washington’s energy and resource bandwidth to the test. This comes at a time when tensions in the Middle East are rising, with a new regional war changing power dynamics in the area.
The cumulative effect of these issues has renewed debate about strengthening the European military pillar of transatlantic security and the NATO alliance so that it can stand firmer beside the United States, which, together with Canada, constitutes the North American pillar. Turkey, as a NATO ally and a formal EU candidate (although a distant one) with interests in the continent’s security architecture, is critical to this argument. Turkey plays a critical role in the geopolitics of the Black Sea area, connecting Europe, the Middle East, and Central Asia. Ankara has increased its geographical, economic, and military influence in the Black Sea, particularly in light of the continuing war in Ukraine and the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. These crises, which are unfolding on Turkey’s northern and southern flanks, present Turkey as a major connector between volatile regions. As the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are increasingly interconnected, Turkey’s strategic ambitions to become a regional force are dependent on its ability to handle these the challenges at its borders while maintaining its core stable.
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