ARVIND SUBRAMANIAN
NEW DELHI – It might be tempting to assume that Donald Trump’s return to the White House augurs stability in US-India relations. After all, there is strong bipartisan support in Washington for deeper ties, particularly as a counterbalance to China’s growing economic and geopolitical influence.
To be sure, the strategic partnership between the United States and India offers several mutual benefits. Unlike other partners, India is not seeking US financial or military aid. And beyond their personal rapport, there is also a clear ideological alignment between Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalism.
Despite this, Trump’s second term could pose significant risks to the bilateral relationship, owing to two Indian vulnerabilities. First, although Trump’s transactional approach to politics makes him unpredictable, his support for using tariffs to reduce America’s trade deficit has been steadfast. His recent pledge to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, is a prime example.
This spells trouble for India, which maintains some of the world’s highest tariffs and has a growing trade surplus with the US (nearly $46 billion in 2022). Trump’s trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, has already labeled India the world’s “most protectionist” country, suggesting that heightened trade tensions are all but inevitable.
No comments:
Post a Comment