Bill Drexel and Ruby Scanlon
Imagine if the U.S. Federal Reserve based its monetary policy on cryptocurrency’s speculative hype—or the Defense Department bet its manufacturing future on the overexcitement for 3D printing in the 2010s that never panned out. As detailed in a memorandum on artificial intelligence released on Oct. 24, President Joe Biden’s administration was beginning to run a similar risk by staking the lion’s share of the United States’ AI strategy on uncertain projections about the progress of large-scale frontier models, like those that power ChatGPT.
As President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming tech czars craft a new AI agenda, they have the opportunity to be both more ambitious and more risk averse: turbocharging the progress of frontier models and accelerating alternative uses of the technology, specifically for national security, in equal measure. Such a diversified approach would better account for the inherent uncertainty in AI development. It would also put the United States on firmer footing to expand its lead over China in the most transformative technology in a generation.
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