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7 December 2024

Trump inherits a Middle East in flux

Colin Demarest

The greater Middle East is erupting, and in just six weeks — tick tock, tick tock — it's Donald Trump's problem.

Why it matters: For all the attention paid to technological face-offs with China and measurements of military might in the Indo-Pacific, it will be the pressures of the Middle East that dominate the early days of Trump's Pentagon.
  • That puts a premium on drone and counter-drone tech, which evolved in the post-9/11 world, as well as air defenses.
  • In turn, the teeth of American forces posted in China's backyard could be dulled, as Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo cautioned days ago.
Between the lines: Some of Trump's picks for key government posts are global war on terrorism veterans. Their experience and potential disillusionment will color, not determine, the administration's approach.
  • Task and Purpose explained it expertly this week.
  • "The worldview of these veterans has largely been shaped by more than two decades of war," Jeff Schogol wrote. "[Pete] Hegseth, [Tulsi] Gabbard, and [JD] Vance in particular have shown a deep distrust for the foreign interventionalist ideology that underpinned the start" of the war on terror.
Our thought bubble: Squaring much-debated MAGA isolationism with the dangers of the Middle East, including continued assaults on U.S. warships, is difficult.

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