Trump can make world energy prices tumble, hitting Putin hard

Ralph Schoellhammer

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A negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine shortly after Donald Trump takes office in January of 2025 seems more and more likely. Based on his current personnel picks it is becoming increasingly obvious that the pre-election fears of Trump abandoning Ukraine were not only premature, but false. Let us take a look at the incoming administration and why it could make peace more likely.

First of all, the entire team that Trump has put together believes in the “peace through strength” doctrine that already existed during the first Trump administration and was masterfully executed: Not only did Trump not start any new wars, he was also capable of reassuring traditional allies like Japan and Saudi Arabia of continued US support, strengthened the position of Israel not by simply delivering arms but by brokering lasting peace deals through the Abraham Accords, and kept foes – like Russia – in check. Showing that the United States do not want to but are willing to use the full force of their military if provoked created enough deterrence to create a remarkably stable global order. The Europeans liked to complain because it was not based on rules and regulations (the toothless “rules based international order” that is mostly popular among bureaucrats and academics, but has little meaning in the real world), but on strength. As it turned out, however, the threat of American power has more currency in international relations than the threat of a European scolding by career diplomats. The European political establishment despises Trump not because of his failures, but his successes.

The members of the Trump 2.0 have been selected to continue these successes, and one can be hopeful that they will achieve their goals. Keith Kellogg, a retired lieutenant general in the United States Army and Trump’s freshly minted special envoy to Russia and Ukraine is already a hopeful sign. No dove on Russia, he pushed for an approach that forces both sides to the negotiating table. Everything – from arms deliveries to Ukraine to sanctions on Russia – must be part of a comprehensive strategy to bring the war to an end. And it appears that Trump’s nominee is already having an effect before assuming office: Both Putin and Zelensky have indicated a newfound willingness to talk, and in an interview with a Japanese TV station, Ukraine’s president said that regaining lost territory could also be achieved via diplomatic means.