Igor Khrestin
This article first appeared on Pacific Forum and is republished with permission. Read the original here.
The incoming Trump administration will face a difficult global geopolitical environment, with the ongoing wars in Europe and the conflict in the Middle East. Looming over the already tense global dynamic is the all-encompassing challenge of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
The United States’ policy “pivot” to Indo-Pacific, which several modern-day American presidents have pursued but none managed to achieve, still remains relevant and consequential to preserving the global order that American power underpins.
If the imbalance is not addressed by the next commander-in-chief, the consequences may yet be even more disastrous. Thus, the new Trump Administration will have to make difficult decisions about the short-term allocation of US military resources among various theaters, while prioritizing the long-term and all-encompassing China Challenge.
What happened?
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and the heinous October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas against Israel and the cycle of violence it engendered since have turned America’s weary eyes back to Europe and the Middle East. So much for US National Security Advisor’s Jake Sullivan’s confident affirmation a mere week before the 10/7 attacks that “the Middle East is quieter that it has been for decades.”
In the meantime, the Indo-Pacific has become a more urgent priority, not a lesser one. After the inauguration of President Lai Ching-te in Taiwan in May, the PRC launched massive live-fire drills in retaliation for the Taiwanese people’s democratic choice. The PRC launched these drills again after President Lai’s Taiwan’s National Day Address.
Beijing hasn’t limited its malign activities at intimidating Taiwan. In fact, Xi Jinping is on a warpath against the West and its allies. The PRC has significantly ramped up its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, causing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to label it as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression during its last annual summit in Washington.
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