Steve Ross & Yun Sun
The Problem
As its neighbor to the north, China has always loomed large over Myanmar (also known as Burma). But since a February 2021 coup by the Myanmar military, China has significantly strengthened its position in Myanmar and is now approaching a level of influence unparalleled in the past 15 years. China has strengthened its position by bolstering its support to ethnic armed groups on the China-Myanmar border before balancing such support by recently swinging behind the military government as it seeks to maintain influence over both sets of actors. In so doing, China is fast becoming not only the kingmaker in Myanmar, but the arbiter of checks and balances against the king it anoints.
What has been striking over the past four years is the absence of alternative international leadership on Myanmar. In the immediate aftermath of the coup, the people of Myanmar clamored for a strong international response, presence, and approach toward the crisis, particularly from the United States. While the U.S. and others mostly in the West have imposed targeted sanctions and offered strong rhetorical support to the parallel National Unity Government and other pro-democracy forces, much of the international response has been outsourced to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) since April 2021, when the bloc agreed to a Five-Point Consensus to address the crisis. ASEAN has achieved little since and no other actor, including the U.S., has demonstrated an inclination to offer practical assistance that could either bolster prospects for the military’s defeat or hasten a political solution.
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