Alex Crowther and Jahara Matisek
The rapid fall of the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has created a strategic inflection point that US leaders—in both the current administration of President Joe Biden and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump—may be missing. President Biden has stated that his administration “will work with our partners and the stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risk,” and will continue supporting partners in neighboring countries and make use of US personnel in the region to prevent the Islamic State from taking advantage of the situation. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with allies and partners in Jordan to discuss potential ways ahead, before heading to meet with leaders in Turkey, arguably the strongest actor in Syria. Contrarily, President-elect Trump posted on social media right before the fall of Assad that “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Unfortunately, both approaches miss an opportunity to amplify key ramifications of Assad’s fall—namely, the weakening of Russia, Iran, and their proxies. The collapse of the Syrian regime presents a timely opportunity for the United States and its allies and partners to tip the scales in not just the Middle East, but Africa and Eastern Europe, as well. The power vacuum in Syria demands swift and decisive action, challenging the conventional wisdom that effective strategies must play out over long time horizons and require patience to see them come to fruition. In this case, Washington and like-minded capitals can advance measures to impose strategic dilemmas on Russia.
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