Pawel Bernat
Editor’s note: This article is part of Project Air & Space Power, which explores and advocates for the totality of air, aviation, and space power in irregular, hybrid, and gray-zone environments. We invite you to contribute to the discussion, explore the difficult questions, and help influence the future of air and space power. Please contact us if you would like to propose an article, podcast, or event.
The war in Ukraine has shattered expectations about how modern conflicts unfold. It has emerged as a technological patchwork—a theater where Cold War relics like the T-54 tank operate alongside modern systems like the British Challenger 2s. Soviet-era PM M1910 machine guns share the battlefield with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), while 1940s artillery coexists with advanced air defense systems. Amid this blend of old and new, the Wagner Group—a shadowy Russian mercenary organization—represents the unexpected convergence of antiquated weaponry and cutting-edge satellite intelligence.
Wagner’s ability to leverage Chinese-sourced satellite data highlights a disturbing reality: even non-state actors now possess access to space-based intelligence once available only to powerful nations. This democratization of space technology has expanded the capabilities of rogue actors, raising profound implications for global security. It also puts the space domain at the forefront of contemporary warfare and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
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