Theodore Bunzel and Elina Ribakova
In 1762, during the Seven Years’ War, the situation looked dire for Frederick the Great of Prussia. The tsarist Russian army, having exhausted the Prussians, was on the march and threatening Berlin. But then the unthinkable happened: Empress Elizabeth of Russia died, and her Prussophile successor, Emperor Peter III, abruptly halted the Russian army and sued for peace, even lending Russian troops to Frederick. What Frederick called the Miracle of the House of Brandenburg remains a stark example of how political change and a new leader’s personal sympathies can suddenly upend an international conflict.
Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the U.S. presidential election may not amount to a Miracle of the House of Putin, but it does give the Kremlin a boost in its war against Ukraine. Trump is skeptical of U.S. support for Kyiv and has promised to bring the fighting to an end. His pledge to resolve the conflict “in 24 hours” may sound like braggadocio, but it reflects a growing consensus in Washington that favors a negotiated solution.
But unlike Prussia in 1762, Russia today isn’t on the ropes; in fact, its army has been gaining ground. Moscow believes that it has momentum on its side and isn’t ready to compromise. Kyiv, meanwhile, remains in the fight and is in no mood for capitulation. Turning Trump’s eagerness to end the war into a stable settlement will therefore require the West to first ramp up pressure on Moscow in order to gain leverage at the negotiating table. Otherwise, a rushed cease-fire on terms highly favorable to Russia could simply become a brief pause before the Kremlin reaches for more.
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