The Return of ​​Syria’s Rebels: Neither Unexpected Nor Final

Arman Mahmoudian 

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The sudden territorial gains of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in northern Syria, including Aleppo—Syria’s second-largest city—have reawakened the nation’s dormant civil war. Although these developments may catch some off guard, they are neither unexpected nor unprecedented. In fact, they have been a long time coming; the regime of Bashar al-Assad has been vulnerable to such upheaval for years.

First, for over a decade, the Syrian army had struggled to obtain the upper hand in a brutal civil war, resulting in a decline in its military capabilities and morale. While the situation had notably stabilized in favor of Assad’s regime since 2018, the Syrian army never received a chance to recover. Once considered a proud military force, the Syrian Arab Army has, in recent years, devolved into a fragmented patchwork of factions and militias heavily influenced by foreign powers, including Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.

The presence and activity of external forces, establishing bases and asserting control across the country, have likely impacted troop morale. Many have begun to question the extent to which they are truly fighting for their country’s sovereignty. Additionally, the Syrian army’s infrastructure, command centers, and bases have been relentlessly targeted by Israeli airstrikes over the past decade. Hundreds of these strikes have critically weakened its operational capacity. These external pressures, alongside the army’s decline and frustration, dealt a serious blow to the overall effectiveness of the Syrian army.

The second factor behind the current developments in Syria is Russia’s so-called “Ukrainian fatigue,” or more precisely, the strain caused by its protracted war in Ukraine. Back in 2015, when Russia declared its support for Assad, it played a pivotal role in restoring the regime’s health. Massive Russian airstrikes were critical in shifting the balance of the civil war, allowing the Syrian regime, supported by Iranian forces and allied Shia militias, to gain the upper hand.