Cheng-kun Ma and K. Tristan Tang
On November 28, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN) began conducting joint combat readiness patrols in Taiwan’s northern, southwestern, and eastern airspace at 6:20 p.m. that night.
The Chinese military’s incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) have attracted significant attention, mainly focusing on the sorties reported daily in Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense press releases and their political implications. However, the joint combat readiness patrols and their military implications have long been overlooked. These patrols pose a greater threat to Taiwan than the typical daily incursions and are more significant for analysis. In fact, the recent emerging trends have even more important strategic implications.
Based on the press release from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, the current level of PLAN and PLAAF incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ appears to have reached a plateau, as joint combat readiness patrols and daily incursions did not significantly increase compared to previous years. Despite China’s rising military expenditures, which could logically lead to more frequent incursions, this situation may suggest that the PLA’s current operational capacity has reached its maximum. Still, the intensity of incursions could increase with further strengthening of logistical capabilities and expansion of the PLAN and PLAAF’s structure.
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