8 December 2024

The Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Doesn’t Mean An End To Conflict In The Region

Seth J. Frantzman

On December 3, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz went to northern Israel to meet with IDF troops and inspect the frontier. His presence came in the wake of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on November 27 that was designed to end Israel-Hezbollah fighting. Israel estimates that it eliminated around 2,500 Hezbollah members in two months of intense fighting that began on September 23, 2024. The end of this round of fighting leaves many other Iranian-backed fronts against Israel at a crossroads. The end of the fighting in southern Lebanon, which may be temporary, also coincided with an offensive by a Syrian opposition group that captured Aleppo from the Assad regime, illustrating the region’s interconnected security dynamics.

Katz is new to his job as defense minister. He took over from Yoav Gallant, who served as minister of defense since 2022. Gallant had advocated for a tougher line on Hezbollah since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, when the Lebanese paramilitary began its “solidarity” strikes against Israel. This was part of what Israel has come to see as a seven-front war. Iran has backed an array of groups attacking Israel over the last year, including Hezbollah, the Houthis, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and also militias in Syria and Iraq.

Katz assumed control of Israel’s defense establishment as Israel marks over a year of warfare in Gaza and Lebanon. The IDF has not only severely weakened Hamas but also handed Hezbollah a series of crippling defeats. What remains of the Iranian-backed fronts is now Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the West Bank.

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