Sheena Chestnut Greitens
The Asia Program in Washington studies disruptive security, governance, and technological risks that threaten peace, growth, and opportunity in the Asia-Pacific region, including a focus on China, Japan, and the Korean peninsula.Learn More
On Tuesday night, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared—and then, under pressure, quickly reversed—martial law. Disapproval spanned the political spectrum, including prominent members of Yoon’s own conservative party, and at the time of writing, the opposition Democratic Party had issued a statement telling Yoon to resign or face impeachment.
Yoon’s move, which appeared to be motivated by his frustration with policy gridlock in a divided government, stunned observers around the world. His subsequent climb-down raised questions about why he had failed to anticipate the legislative and public response and what exactly he had hoped to achieve with such a high-stakes gamble.
While the immediate crisis was short-lived, the South Korean president’s miscalculation will likely have longer-term policy ramifications both at home and abroad. Domestically, Yoon’s political survival is in doubt: he won the presidency in 2022 by a narrow margin, lost ground in the legislative elections earlier this year, and entered this episode with (at best) a 25 percent approval rating. If Yoon is impeached, as appears likely, the incident will add another layer of turbulence to South Korea’s post-democratization politics. Most of South Korea’s democratically elected presidents have eventually been investigated and imprisoned, either during or after their tenures. The previous conservative president, Park Geun-hye, was impeached and convicted of corruption following widespread popular demonstrations.
Some observers have used the swift denouement of this week’s crisis to highlight the resilience of South Korean democracy. In the face of an ill-planned power grab by the president—who backed down in the face of easily anticipated legislative and public backlash, and who apparently failed to notify his own police forces and aides of his plans—there’s no question that South Korea’s pro-democratic assertiveness was inspiring, and successful.
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