24 December 2024

The Final Days​ of Bashar al-Assad

Alexander Langlois & Abed Al-Thalji

A barrage of post-mortem analyses have sought to investigate the stunning collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, key details remain unreported, and misconceptions are beginning to circulate regarding the opposition forces involved and the timeline of events. Unlocking the black box of Syria’s information space is critical as international stakeholders work with local Syrian actors in support of a Syrian-led, Syrian-owned transition that stabilizes the country.

Who Participated in the Rebel Offensive?

For months, opposition forces designed a politico-military campaign to topple Assad and drive Iran-backed militias out of Syria. Thus far, international media has primarily focused on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), who is actively working toward rehabilitation and removal of his sanctions designations. Al-Sharaa is currently leading a caretaker government in Damascus for three months.

Multiple factions—including the opposition’s elite units—not only contributed to the offensive but spearheaded the operation. These forces, long mired in internal strife, were restructured multiple times and operate today in a decentralized but coordinated fashion with assigned “Areas of Responsibility.”

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