Mick Ryan
As 2024 draws to a close, the number of events in national security and geopolitics seem to be acclerating. This week, I will be covering a broad range of conflicts, starting with Ukraine, then the Middle East and finally across the world to the Pacific Theatre. And, as always, I will finish with my five recommended reads on war and national security issues from the past week.
Ukraine
The British Ministry of Defence this week released new figures on Russian casualties in Ukraine since Feburary 2022. The daily average casualty rate for the Russians has now exceeded 1500 in November, and for the first time in the war (on 28 November) over 2000 casualties were reported on a single day. The British report also concludes that November 2024 was the deadliest month for Russia since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022, with a total of 45,860 casualties. Putin is sprinting to the inauguration of Donald Trump, hoping to capture as much of Ukraine as he can, and more importantly, solidify in the minds of Trump and his advisors the idea that Russian victory is inevitable.
Operations in Kursk continue with the Ukrainians holding on to their defensive positions and the Russo-Korean offensive seeking to dislodge the Ukrainians. As the two maps below show (one from two weeks ago and one from this week) there has been very little terrain that has changed hands in that time. Of note, Putin sacked the regional governor this week. What took him so long?
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