25 December 2024

Syria’s challenges are even greater than those Libya faced in 2011

Tim Eaton

The rapid and complete capitulation of the Assad regime in Syria shows how quickly fragile political systems can transform.

Syrians have earned the right to celebrate the overthrow of this murderous regime, whose atrocities are still being uncovered. Syria is now in the midst of an uncertain transition, where there are far too many possible outcomes to make predictions with any level of confidence.

Politicians in the region and beyond have expressed their hopes for a new Syria, albeit expressing caution given the complexity of the situation. They have also offered up experiences from other conflict affected states as a cautionary tale.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, for instance, told Parliament on 9 December: ‘We do not want Syria to become like Libya… fractured and vulnerable to different terrorist groups’.

Greater challenges

In fact, the scale of the challenge facing Syria is greater than that which confronted Libya in 2011. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown after less than a year of conflict that cost thousands of lives. But on his death, much of the country’s infrastructure remained intact. Libyan rebels had exported oil even before his overthrow.

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