Sam Dagher
(Bloomberg) -- Syria-based rebel forces are seeking to build on recent gains and capture more territory controlled by the government, raising the question of whether President Bashar Al-Assad can hold onto power.
There are a lot of unknowns in how the latest twist in Syria’s 15-year conflict will play out, and much depends on the agendas of powerful external actors as much as the internal enmities that have influenced events. For Assad, 59, that means Iran, which considers Syria part of its so-called axis of resistance against Israel and the West and has for years provided the bulk of ground forces, and Russia, an old Cold War-era ally that stepped in to save him in 2015.
A major game changer would be if Russia, which has an airbase in the country, commences a sweeping aerial bombardment against the rebels like it did nine years ago. The difference this time is that Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine.
Syrian Rebels Take Over Aleppo, Control Airport | Rebel forces — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a breakaway faction of al-Qaeda — push toward Hama after taking Aleppo© Bloomberg News
Assad has ground Syria down with its population struggling with poverty, shortages and power outages. The conflict so far has left between 300,000 to 500,000 dead, more than 7 million internally displaced, at least 6.4 million refugees and caused almost half a trillion dollars of damage, according to United Nations agencies and Syrian NGOs.
Here are some of the key questions:
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