Natasha Hall
On November 27, Syrian opposition-armed groups launched a surprise offensive. With Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the lead, rebels in northwest Syria quickly swept through the western Aleppo countryside. With little to no resistance from the Syrian regime and their allies, rebels were able to capture Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, within a day. By the evening of November 30, the rebels had taken over 100 kilometers of the strategic M5 highway linking Aleppo and Damascus. This is the first rebel offensive and a major shift in frontlines in years. The last significant change was in early 2020 when the regime displaced nearly a million people into Idlib from other parts of the province and Hama province.
Q1: What led to the surprise rebel offensive?
A1: Prior to this offensive, the frontlines in Syria’s long-running war had been relatively frozen for four years. To maintain those frontlines, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah protected the Assad regime, while Turkey preserved the opposition-held northern parts of the country, and the United States maintained forces in northeastern and eastern Syria.
That fragile stasis collapsed as Assad’s allies, Iran and Hezbollah, have been significantly weakened. In recent months, Israel decimated Hezbollah leadership and rank and file and penetrated highly secure locations in Iran. Hours before the offensive in Syria, Hezbollah struck a ceasefire deal with Israel, in which Israeli forces vowed to prevent weapon transfers to Hezbollah, and they have continued to strike arms shipments in Syria and Lebanon.
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