Edward Lucas
An insidious form of conflict, far subtler than all-out combat, is on the rise. It involves hired thugs, spy drones and seabed sabotage. Such attacks are hard to attribute but they target the very essence of western defence, writes Edward Lucas
Nerves are jangling in Whitehall, and beyond. The security of Britain and its allies feels precarious in a way unknown for decades. A seasoned security source speaks of an “apocalyptic” mood. The news is bad enough from Ukraine. But problems closer to home, in the “grey zone” between peace and war, are sparking worries too.
This week unidentified drones buzzed four US air force bases in Britain. Another one shadowed the HMS Queen Elizabeth as it visited Hamburg. In Lithuania, a DHL cargo plane crashed at Vilnius airport, killing the pilot; the disaster follows three attempts to plant incendiary devices on other DHL flights, including one to Britain. In a naval stand-off in the straits between Denmark and Sweden, Nato warships confront a Chinese freighter suspected of seabed sabotage. A Russian missile corvette lurks nearby.
Proving hostile state activity in the grey zone is hard. Sometimes ordinary criminals, hooligans, pranksters or simple carelessness may be to blame. If these attacks are hard to attribute, they are even harder to stop. Our system is based on trust and openness, easily exploited. But the escalating scope, intensity and frequency of the attacks shows that we are failing to deter them.
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