George Allison
Dr Patricia Lewis, former Director of the International Security Programme at Chatham House, offered a detailed response, outlining possible future moves by Russia to escalate tensions and test Western resolve.
Dr Lewis highlighted the broader context of NATO’s response to the conflict, describing a “very sensitive calibration” within NATO nations, particularly the United States, since early 2022. This careful balance aimed to ensure the war was not perceived as a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.
“That calibration was what was holding back air defences, combat aircraft, long-range missiles and allowing deep strikes into Russian territory,” she explained. However, she noted that this boundary has since shifted, stating: “That red line has been broken, but there are still some big issues about that.”
In response to Thomas’s question, Lewis identified several potential actions Russia might take to disrupt Western support for Ukraine. She predicted increased use of the Oreshnik missile, a weapon that poses a significant challenge due to its speed, range, and the absence of effective countermeasures.
“I think that we will see more use of the Oreshnik missile to frighten—there are no defences against it—in a conventional capability,” she explained. While Russia has used other dual-capable weapons throughout the war, the Oreshnik’s specific capabilities make it particularly concerning.
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