Basil Germond
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has claimed that Russia now has the right to target assets of nations that supply Ukraine with tactical missiles, after the US authorised the use of such weapons against targets deep into Russian territory.
So far Putin’s warning feel like a rhetorical escalation, which might not yet result in a direct military confrontation. But short of a “real” war, Moscow can destabilize western economies and societies with operations in what is called the “grey zone”.
The grey zone is not defined geographically. It is a functional space between war and peace, where jurisdictions are blurred, contested or left unclear and where responsibilities and accountability are vague and deniable. It’s where hybrid warfare and below-the-threshold operations flourish, because it is more difficult to tell whether an attack has occured and who might be responsible.
Hybrid warfare comes in myriad different forms. It can be disinformation campaigns designed to create uncertainty or even panic in a population. Or cyberattacks against transport infrastructure intended to seriously disrupt a competitor or adversary.
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