Paul Goble
Over the course of 2024, both participants and observers of Russia’s war on Ukraine have frequently changed their assessments of its likely outcome. Some once predicted the victory of one side, then shifted to predicting the triumph of the other, only to reverse themselves again at a later point (see EDM, January 16, July 1).
This behavior, of course, was on view even earlier in the conflict (see EDM December 13, 20, 2023, January 28.) On the one hand, this pattern reflects changing definitions in Kyiv and Moscow as to what victory would look like (Window on Eurasia, September 1). On the other hand, these shifting assessments are the product of major changes in the performance of the two forces on the battlefield, the domestic situations the two countries find themselves in because of the war, and the changing constellation of forces in the international system. As the war heads into 2025, however, a consensus is emerging that some kind of agreement that will end the fighting can and will be reached in the coming months (The Moscow Times, December 6; Gazeta.ru, December 7).
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