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17 December 2024

Perfect Storm: The Rising Risk of China-US Conflict Over Taiwan

William Matthews

Following Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s return from a trip to the South Pacific, China conducted what appeared to be its most extensive military exercises around Taiwan in decades. These marked the third round of extensive drills targeting Taiwan this year, though the exercises have yet to be officially announced by China.

Such drills are intended to intimidate Taiwan while providing the opportunity to rehearse joint operations of the kind that would be conducted in a full-scale blockade or invasion. But they are also intended as a demonstration to the United States of China’s capability and resolve, particularly ahead of a hawkish Trump administration taking office in January – as has been suggested by Taiwanese officials.

In response to a question from an AFP journalist about the current drills, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that “the Taiwan question is the number one red line which cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations.”

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