As the year of 2024 comes to a close, the situation remains as difficult as it was at the end of 2023, when Russian forces were assaulting Avdiivka, gradually dismantling Ukrainian defenses from the flanks. Has anything significantly changed since then? Yes and no. Beyond the obvious advantages in manpower, air power (particularly the use of KAB-guided munitions) and the ability to concentrate fire, there has been a shift in Russian tactics, one that emphasizes even smaller infantry groups than before.
In practice, Russian forces are now deploying tiny units, sometimes as few as two soldiers, to probe for weaknesses in Ukrainian lines. When they identify a vulnerability, they signal for larger reinforcements, often platoon- or company-sized units. Until such gaps are found, however, these small groups, sometimes using motorcycles, continue their repetitive efforts, probing for openings and exhausting defenders. Moscow can afford to lose these small units daily, as the steady influx of new soldiers ensures that the pressure never lets up. Our team has also learned that in several areas along the front, newly recruited Russian soldiers are sent straight into combat, with more experienced troops waiting in reserve to secure positions once they are captured. This approach helps mitigate casualties among the more valuable, seasoned soldiers, preserving them for critical operations.
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