29 December 2024

Myanmar’s Poverty Trap: Inflation And Unemployment Collide – Analysis

Windia Soe

Progress and Setbacks in Poverty Reduction

Myanmar, one of the least developed countries, has significantly reduced poverty over the last decade. Myanmar began a political and economic transition in 2011 under a controversial elected government led by a retired military leader, which led to its first semi-democratic transition in 2015. The 2017 Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) reports that the percentage of the population living below the national poverty line decreased significantly, dropping from 48.2% in 2005 to 24.8% in 2017. Between 2011 and 2019, the country achieved significant economic growth, averaging 6 percent annually, and notable reductions in poverty. This progress was driven by economic reforms, increased foreign direct investment, the lifting of sanctions, and growing optimism for stability.

However, Myanmar’s development journey is complex, with the positive trends observed in 2017 were soon disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent political instability in 2021. By the end of 2020, the poverty rate was projected to rise from 6 to 11 percent, driven by declining incomes and limited coping mechanisms among vulnerable households. The 2020 Household Vulnerability Survey revealed that 83.3% of households reported income losses, particularly those reliant on small-scale family businesses.

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