Alexis Turek
The State Administration Council (SAC) junta in Myanmar is in its worst position since the beginning of the civil war in February 2021. Operation 1027, a joint assault in October 2023 by three ethnic armed organisations in northern Shan state, has catalysed rebel victories across the country. The ethnic armed organisations and other rebel People’s Defence Forces have been making significant territorial gains, targeting border areas, junta bases and industry centres.
The SAC has resorted to mandating military service for all men and women, including forcibly recruiting Rohingya into service under threat of arrest. Following the new conscription law, reports have emerged of abductions and illegal detention, with large numbers of young people fleeing to Thailand to escape conscription.
The SAC has faced significant territorial losses, impacting its ability to extract vital resources. While the conflict is unlikely to stop soon, rebel forces now stand a better chance of victory than they have at any other point in the conflict.
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