Noah Smith
I’m not sure if Musk is right about the F-35 and other manned fighters — drones and fighters play different roles on the battlefield, and may coexist in the future (for an argument that the F-35 itself has been overly maligned, watch this fun video). But in any case, Musk’s larger point that drones will dominate the battlefield of the future should now be utterly uncontroversial.
Drones have already become the essential infantry weapon, capable of taking out soldiers and tanks alike, as well as the key spotter for artillery fire and the standard method of battlefield reconnaissance. Electronic warfare — using EM signals to jam drones’ communication with their pilots and GPS satellites — is providing some protection against drones for now, but once AI improves to the point where drones are able to navigate on their own, even that defense will be mostly ineffectual. This doesn’t mean drones will be the only weapon of war, but it will be impossible to fight and win a modern war without huge numbers of drones.
And who makes FPV drones, of the type depicted in Musk’s video? China. Although the U.S. still leads in the production of military drones, China’s DJI and other manufacturers dominate the much larger market for commercial drones.
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