Jennifer Bell
A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah took effect on Wednesday, but regional and global security analysts warn while the agreement should bring celebration the situation remains “highly fragile” as both sides navigate the delicate truce.
The agreement marks a tentative pause to more than a year of conflict that has claimed the lives of thousands and displaced tens of thousands in Israel and hundreds of thousands in Lebanon.
Raphael S. Cohen, senior political scientist and director of the Strategy & Doctrine Program at RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, told Al Arabiya English that the news should be a cause of celebration - and caution.
“First and foremost, the ceasefire is obviously good news both for the people of southern Lebanon and northern Israel,” he said. “For 14 months now, tens of thousands of Israelis and - by some estimates - over a million Lebanese civilians have been displaced from their homes; this ceasefire is the first step in allowing them to return home,” he said. “Second, the ceasefire came about because both sides wanted a deal.”
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