Octavian Manea
Octavian Manea: The center of gravity of the “axis of upheaval” is really about the Russia-China strategic partnership. How should we understand today the strategic relationship between China and Russia? Is it temporary or long term? Is it something contingent on the personalities of the two leaders of each nation? What brings and keeps the two countries together?
Dr Kendall-Taylor: The Russia-China relationship is something that has been deepening for quite some time, but was accelerated by Russia’s invasions of Ukraine, both in 2014 as well as the full-scale invasion in 2022. We did see Russia-China relations warming in the waning days of the Cold War. But that first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was a really important accelerant of their partnership because Russia realized it did not have viable options in the West. In that context, Moscow pivoted and turned much more eagerly towards deepening relations with Beijing.
The two countries are united in their shared desire to weaken the United States and US power and to revise the international order that Russia and China both believe disadvantages them. It remains very much a top-down relationship. Putin and Xi have very close personal ties. I think they are the two leaders who have spent the most time together out of any other pair of international leaders. But it is increasingly an institutionalized relationship. We are seeing more and more that there are working groups within government at lower levels in the bureaucracy. It is this kind of repeated interaction that creates the foundation for a durable and lasting partnership.
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