Amit Bhandari and Aditya Shinde
During his visit to Guyana in South America (20-21 November), Prime Minister Modi signed a number of MOUs, including one for cooperation in the hydrocarbon (petroleum) sector.[1] The agreement included sourcing of crude oil, cooperation in natural gas and development of infrastructure.[2] Guyana has become an important oil producer in the past five years – from its astounding oil discovery in 2015 and first oil production in 2019, Guyana now produces 645,000 barrels/day of oil. A consortium led by U.S. oil major ExxonMobil, which includes China’s state-owned CNOOC, is producing this oil.
To the north, the U.S. seems set to witness a further boost to its oil industry. Incoming President Donald Trump has announced Chris Wright[3], an oil industry executive with extensive experience in shale oil, as his energy secretary. The expectation is that under a Trump administration, there will be fewer curbs on America’s extensive oil industry. The U.S. is already the world’s largest producer of petroleum, well ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia. Under an industry-friendly Trump administration, described as “drill, baby, drill.,” U.S. oil production is set to rise further.
These production increases will address the growing global demand for oil. OPEC, the group of oil-producing states, projects that the world’s oil demand will increase to 120 million barrels/day by 2050, up from 102 million barrels/day in 2023. India alone is projected to account for an additional 8 million barrels/day, or 45% of this rise.[4] Clearly, the petroleum industry is far from spent, and still has a long way to go and to grow. The recently concluded COP29, whose outcomes have been described as unsatisfactory, also shows that the world is not yet financially or technologically capable of moving away from traditional fuels.
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