Vali Nasr
The cataclysmic events of the last few weeks in Lebanon and Syria—from Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah to the fall of the Assad regime—have opened a new chapter for the Middle East. The hope may be that the collapse of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance in the Levant augurs a period of peace and stability in the region. The more likely outcome, however, is an intensification of regional competition to fill the vacuum left by the diminishment of Iran and its allies. The collapse of Hezbollah changed the balance of power between Iran and Israel, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad has further weakened Iran. But the broader consequence is a change in the balance of power between Turkey and everyone else.
The quick end of the Assad regime is a watershed moment for Syria. It marks the liberation of a long-suffering country from 54 years of family rule marked by depravity and brutality, never more cruelly than over the past 14 years of near-constant war. It is also a humiliating defeat for Iran and Russia, which propped up Assad; Russia may lose the military bases it has used as a springboard to Africa, while Iran loses Syria as its land bridge to Lebanon.
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