4 December 2024

Implications of the Oreshnik for NATO's Missile Defense Posture in Europe Is NATO Toast?

Fabian Hoffmann

What do we know about the Oreshnik so far?

Here’s a quick recap along with additional information released since last week.

Oreshnik is a new missile system based on the Russian RS-26 Rubezh (SS-X-31), which was developed between 2008 and 2018 but mothballed before reaching full operational capability.

According to Ukrainian assessments, development of the RS-26 continued under the new designation “Kedr,” reportedly describing the same capability as the Oreshnik. Like the RS-26, the Oreshnik is almost certainly a solid-propellant, two-stage missile, with stages identical to the first two used in the RS-24 YaRS ICBM.

While Putin described the missile as a medium-range capability, it likely falls within the intermediate-range spectrum (3,000–5,500 km) and could potentially engage targets at the lower bounds of the intercontinental-range spectrum (>5,500 km), depending on the trajectory flown. Perhaps the most notable feature demonstrated by the Oreshnik was its non-nuclear MIRV capability, enabling it to carry multiple warheads that can be independently targeted.

Although MIRV technology is common in nuclear missiles, the Oreshnik is the first and currently the only operational ballistic missile confirmed to be equipped with a non-nuclear MIRV payload (there are claims that some Iranian MRBMs may be equipped with MIRV technology). That said, the missile's exact payload configuration remains somewhat unclear. Reports suggest the Oreshnik carries six re-entry vehicles, each equipped with a non-nuclear warhead. According to HUR reports, each of these warheads contains six inert submunitions, though it is unclear what these submunitions are (dummies, weight simulators, penetration aids, something else?). Conventional explosives are very likely not involved.

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