Kay Armin Serjoie
Every dramatic development in the Middle East this year has left Iran weaker. In 2024, the Islamic Republic lost in Gaza, in Lebanon, and, most spectacularly, in the Syrian Arab Republic, the linchpin of the “Shiite Crescent” collapsing so quickly this month that Tehran had to scramble to evacuate its officers of the Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force. In a stroke, the demise of the Assad regime halved the number of states that Iran counts as an ally, leaving only Venezuela, a nation emptying itself of its people. The Axis of Resistance is down to rump militias in Iraq and the Houthi tribe of Yemen, the poorest country in the Middle East.
Inside Iran, though, things may be even worse. The economy is at its lowest point since the 1979 Revolution that brought the theocracy to power. The ministry of social welfare last year announced that 57 percent of Iranians are experiencing some level of malnourishment. Thirty percent live below the poverty line. The Iranian rial has fallen 46 percent in the past year, and is officially the world’s least valuable currency, worth less than the Sierra Leonean Leone or the Laotian Kip. As ordinary Iranians watch their savings vaporize on the pages of bank statements, a deeply unsettled regime has decided this is a good time to threaten them.
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