1 December 2024

How Trump Can Win in Ukraine

Stephen Blank

Mario Cuomo famously observed that you campaign in poetry but govern in prose. There is no reason to suppose the incoming Trump Administration will be different in this respect. Events, personalities, and facts, as much, if not more than, rhetoric, will likely drive its policies. This observation pertains as much to Ukraine policy as to all other policy domains. So, despite his campaign rhetoric President Trump can succeed on Ukraine not by giving Russia a victory camouflaged by negotiations but rather by using American power to force Russia to negotiate with Ukraine or even to obtain a victory for Kyiv. Indeed, despite much commentary that Ukraine cannot win, in fact Russia’s domestic situation is considerably worse than is reported and Russian media reveals a deep and arguably growing elite discontent. Although Trump has said he could make peace between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours; this is clearly an exaggeration. And while incoming Vice-President Vance stated that he does not care about Ukraine; an objective look at the facts, including those pertaining to Russian domestic factors, should convince him and President Trump to realize that they have it within their power to achieve a victory for the United States and thus themselves that increases their support by supporting Ukraine.

To do so they need to look at the current facts of the case not campaign rhetoric. Due to the insertion of north Korean troops and Russia’s dependence on North Korean artillery, Iranian drones and missiles, and Chinese exports of dual-use technology this war has assumed global reverberations. Therefore, whatever Washington does will have serious, even critical, ramifications for its Asian policies -- the likely priority of a Trump Administration – and Middle Eastern policies. For these reasons, Trump’s policy moves will go beyond affecting Ukrainian and European security. Indeed, this much is obvious. More importantly, the second consequence of Russia’s dependence on foreign governments is that it confers upon the United States an enormous opportunity to deploy, with its allies, its superior economic and military capability either to bring Russia to the table or more preferably, help Ukraine achieve victory. Victory for Ukraine entails restoration of its territorial integrity, and guarantees of its full sovereignty, including the right to join NATO and the EU, and, if possible, the institution of reparations and war crimes trials.

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