Tarik Solmaz
Amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, many defense analysts are questioning if a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is now closer than ever. There is little doubt that Beijing has long sought control of Taiwan. This desire has only become more tangible since the pro-independence Democratic Progress Party (DPP) returned to power in 2016. Since then, China has waged a prolonged and comprehensive hybrid warfare campaign against Taiwan. To put it briefly, this campaign has included isolating Taiwan diplomatically, spreading disinformation to undermine public trust, launching cyber-attacks on government systems, and exerting economic pressure to discourage public support for the Taiwanese government. Simultaneously, China has conducted frequent incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and large-scale military drills, aiming to intimidate both the public and political leadership. Russia’s shift from a lengthy hybrid warfare campaign against Ukraine to a full-scale military invasion on February 24, 2022, highlights that hybrid warfare is not the sole approach available to revisionist states. This escalation suggests that Taiwan could face a similar escalation in the future. So, analyzing the factors behind Russia’s escalation in Ukraine is crucial to draw lessons that Taiwan and its allies might apply to prepare for potential threats. Three critical insights emerge from this analysis.
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