28 December 2024

Dealing with Trump, Israel, and Hamas: The path to peace in the Middle East

Hugh Lovatt & Muhammad Shehada

A just diplomatic solution

More than one year after Hamas’s 7 October attacks against Israel, the war in Gaza continues unabated, deepening the strip’s humanitarian catastrophe. But while Israel has significantly weakened Hamas, killing many of its leaders and destroying a significant portion of its infrastructure, it has not accomplished its twin goals of destroying the group and freeing the Israeli hostages. With Hamas already regenerating its ranks and waging a protracted insurgency, Israel lacks a viable strategy to achieve its core objectives. Instead, it is preparing for a long stay – depopulating and destroying northern Gaza as a possible prelude to returning Israeli settlements. The incoming US administration of Donald Trump risks encouraging Israel to keep pursing these maximalist ambitions.

Unsurprisingly, the Gaza war is not playing out in isolation. It is feeding an intensifying conflict in the West Bank where Israel is also quickly expanding its settlements and Hamas is leveraging popular Palestinian anger at Israeli actions to consolidate its domestic position. A ceasefire deal between Hizbullah and Israel reached in November 2024 offers a diplomatic window for regional de-escalation. But any progress risks being derailed by continuing violence in Gaza.

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