Hung Tran
The first island chain broadly refers to the chain of islands encompassing Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia – allies or friends of the United States. Conceptually these islands and nations form the first line of defense against China in the U.S. strategic posture in Asia-Pacific – in which South Korea, though not an island country, also plays an important role. From China’s perspective, the first island chain is a line of strategic containment near to its shore. China must break out of this island chain so that its blue water navy can have unfettered access to the Pacific and beyond.
In that context, China is keenly interested in the strength of those governments and the popular support of their China policies – especially when such policies are against Beijing’s interests.
As a consequence, China has reasons to view recent political disarray in those countries as being to its advantage, especially if domestic turmoil limits the ability of these U.S. allies to bolster their defense postures.
South Korea
South Korea is the most obvious example of political chaos. President Yoon Suk-yeol announced martial law in the evening of December 3, then lifted it six hours later after a National Assembly vote. Yoon apologized to the public and survived the first attempt at impeachment in the National Assembly, but even his allies’ defense against impeachment hinges on the claim that Yoon no longer exercises any presidential authority. Meanwhile, he faces investigations for insurrection and treason as a second impeachment vote looms.
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