Euan Graham
Military intervention by China in Myanmar’s civil war is more likely than generally thought. While attention is fixed on Beijing’s expansionist activities in the South China Sea and aggressive intentions towards Taiwan, China’s more immediately consequential move in Southeast Asia could come via an overland vector.
Speculation that China may step up its involvement in Myanmar’s civil war has been brewing for some time. However, discussion has been mostly limited to Myanmar watchers, receiving little mainstream attention in comparison with Beijing’s well-publicised behaviour in the South China Sea.
According to media reporting, China recently proposed establishing a ‘joint security company’ with Myanmar. While there is no agreement on what this will consist of and how it will be established, the presence of armed Chinese personnel operating within Myanmar’s territory would shorten the odds on Beijing’s direct intervention in the civil war, with a high risk of mission creep.
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