Hasan Alhasan
Great-power competition creates opportunities for agile actors to position themselves as key connectors in an increasingly fragmented global system. Often thought of as hedging against US decline or abandonment by drawing closer to China or Russia, the Arab Gulf states are better understood as embracing a new bridging role by inserting themselves as conduits between global and regional rivals. In an era of weaponised interdependence, these states are leveraging their multi-aligned relations to act as political and economic power brokers irrespective of geopolitical rivalries.
Reliable partners Nowhere is this activity clearer than in the energy domain. Arab Gulf states have seized on the global energy crisis that followed the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine to reinforce this message. Arab Gulf oil producers have defended their neutrality with regard to the war in Ukraine – a stance they view as a prerequisite for working with Russia to ensure oil market stability via OPEC+. Saudi Arabia and to a lesser extent the United Arab Emirates have also upheld their swing-producer status, ramping up oil production in July 2022 to cushion rising prices while bearing the brunt of cuts in production quotas later in the year due to uncertainty over future demand.
The Arab Gulf states have also deepened their energy relations with both China and the US. Saudi Arabia has doubled down on the Chinese market by investing with Sinopec in a US$10 billion refining complex in Fujian province. Meanwhile, the UAE’s ADNOC made its first significant US investment in May 2024 by securing an equity position and offtake agreement in the Rio Grande liquefied natural gas (LNG) project, with Saudi Aramco mulling similar deals in US–LNG projects.
Beyond oil and gas, the Arab Gulf states’ sprawling investments in renewable energy, spanning countries in Asia, Africa and Europe, indicate a clear desire to sidestep geopolitical boundaries.
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