8 December 2024

Barnier downfall threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead

Hugh Schofield

France’s political crisis is worse than normal political crises.

Normally when a democratic country passes through turbulence, there is some prospect of the turbulence coming to an end.

Not today in Paris. If anything, the downfall of Michel Barnier – toppled in parliament by a no-confidence motion – threatens to set a pattern for what lies ahead.

For if Barnier – a moderate of the centre-right with a reputation for courtesy and compromise – was unable to pass a budget, then who else can?

The original cause of the crisis has not gone away. It is the division since July of the National Assembly into three roughly equal blocs, none of which is prepared to deal with another.

As a result the two blocs that make up the opposition will always be able to unseat the one bloc that forms a government.

Add to that a mood of near-insurrection on some opposition benches – plus an ideological push for ever more generous spending pledges, despite stark warnings about the national debt – and the idea of a return to serene central politics seems very distant.

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