John B. Sheldon
The proliferation of ballistic missiles is now a global phenomenon, as is the dissemination of space and satellite technologies. The Middle East is no exception to these trends. Several regional actors, including non-state actors, have acquired ballistic-missile capabilities, which offer unique military advantages and are increasingly seen as complimentary to traditional missile forces. In parallel, over the past two decades, regional states have ramped up their space ambitions, including the development of space-launch vehicles (SLVs) and establishment of regional space ports. This IISS research paper focuses on the nexus of ballistic-missile proliferation and the spread of space technologies in the Middle East, its implications for further proliferation and regional security and stability, and the utility of diplomatic tools and measures for countering Middle Eastern ballistic-missile proliferation and achieving space security.
With a couple of exceptions, modern SLV development has now largely decoupled from ballistic-missile programmes as the space industry has become more commercialised and the two types of systems have grown increasingly technologically divergent. But other dual-use space technologies, most notably satellite systems, are increasingly being adopted by regional states to enhance their military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. This shift could fuel the national pursuit of counter-space capabilities, of which the potential for conversion of ballistic missiles into direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) weapons is of particular concern for regional security and stability.
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