Hamzeh Hadad
The cycle of escalation between Israel and Iran seems to have entered a cooling period as the two sides assess how US president-elect Donald Trump will approach the Middle East when he takes office in January. But neither this pause nor the uneasy ceasefire in Lebanon will soothe nerves in Baghdad that Iraq could find itself drawn into the widening war in the region.
Before the US election, Israeli intelligence claimed that Iran’s possible next attack on Israel could be launched by Iraqi Shia armed factions allied with Iran – an outcome that would invite retaliatory strikes on Iraq. Baghdad has dismissed these claims, but drone attacks from Iraq have targeted Israel in recent weeks. Rising US-Iranian tensions could see these Iranian-allied paramilitary groups launch a violent campaign against Israel – a close US ally.
With the failure to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, Europeans need to remain focused on preventing the conflict from spreading further. Iraq’s government and Shia religious leaders have been fundamental in preventing Iraqi Shia armed groups from launching attacks against US and Israeli interests over the past year. Given the considerable resources European governments have spent stabilising Iraq after waves of violence over the past two decades, they now need to support Iraq’s leadership and religious figures as they safeguard the country from renewed conflict.
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