Rose Gottemoeller
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during the first Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15. Five actors—Ukraine, Russia, NATO, the European Union, and the United States under a second Trump administration—will be central in the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. (Credit: Official website of the President of Ukraine)
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Donald Trump has famously said that he would end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. However, ending this war at such lightning speed will not be possible, even if President Trump tries to force a capitulation on the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians would not go quietly, nor should Trump seek their total capitulation because, if they did capitulate, he would come out on the losing side.
In the zero-sum tradition of Russian diplomacy, President Vladimir Putin has been keen to mete out a devastating defeat to Ukraine and with it a defeat of its NATO partners and the United States in particular. Putin speaks of his goal as avoiding NATO’s strategic defeat of Russia—an existential threat that he has embraced to the hilt, even though NATO has denied any intention of attacking Russia itself.
Trump may seek a deal, but he most certainly won’t want a deal that leaves him appearing to be a loser. Putin, in turn, wants a continuing partner in Trump because he has several goals he needs to accomplish—such as getting out from under the crushing sanctions that the United States and its allies have imposed on Russia. Putin cannot afford to force Trump into a losing position, which means he cannot crush the Ukrainians. They too must come out of the war achieving a good measure of their objectives.
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