Samuel Charap
For those seeking to end Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine, the election of Donald Trump presents a crucial opportunity. In direct contrast to U.S. President Joe Biden, whose administration has held to a policy of unwavering support for Ukraine without pushing for a defined endgame to the war, Trump has focused almost exclusively on that endgame. He has long made clear his intention to bring the two sides to the negotiating table soon after he takes office and maybe even before that. Within weeks of his election victory, he named a retired general and former senior official, Keith Kellogg, as special envoy for Russia-Ukraine, underscoring the priority he and his administration will place on winding down the war.
This coming radical shift in the U.S. approach to the war could revive negotiations that have been effectively dormant since April 2022. Back then, in the first weeks of the war, Russia and Ukraine conducted several rounds of talks in person and online aimed at ending the conflict; although a framework for peace called the Istanbul Communiqué was drawn up, an agreement was never finalized. In the run-up to and since Trump’s election, however, there have been signs that both Kyiv and Moscow might be ready to return to the table. This is particularly true of the Ukrainians, who have been losing ground—as well as people and energy generation capacity—for two years and need urgent relief before their manpower situation becomes critical. Russia also faces some challenges: it is taking more ground by the day but at an extremely high price, and the Kremlin wants to lock in those gains without having to incur enormous costs indefinitely.
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