Aaron Stein
(FPRI) — Last week, Russia simulated a nuclear strike in Europe with a purpose-built missile designed to carry multiple nuclear or conventional warheads. The missile, which Russia has dubbed ‘Oreshnik’, is the latest Russian missile designed to strike targets in Europe. The missile is a purported variant of the RS-26, which was built using the first stage booster from the RS-24, a road-mobile missile designed to strike targets in the United States.
The RS-26 was never deployed when first tested in 2011. However, the missile’s use in combat is clearly now intended to signal to Europe that Russia has a credible delivery system for intermediate-range nuclear strikes. This is part of an effort to make Russia’s nuclear threats more credible and forebodes continued tensions in Europe. The backdrop to these developments is the collapse of Russo-Western relations. This downturn stems from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has destabilized Europe and forced European countries to prepare once again for the prospect of regional conflict.
These tensions have had a clear impact on missile proliferation in the region. The roots of missile proliferation date back to the turn of the 21st century, the gradual demise of the arms control agreements, and the upending of European security following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The use of the Oreshnik/RS-26 is, I believe, intended to influence decision-making in European capitals about the future of European-Russian relations. This is a classic Russian strategy and broadly reminiscent of Moscow’s thinking about the deployment and development of the SS-20 missile. I believe that this approach to intra-European relations will fail and, along with the United States, Europe is destined for the vast expansion of conventionally armed, medium-range missiles, designed to strike with extreme accuracy.
This development forebodes continued instability in Europe, a future where arms control will be far more difficult than ever before to use to lessen tensions and suggests that the arms build-up that is now taking place will continue well into the future.
A SS-20 Clone: Renewed Capabilities and Faulty Assumptions
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