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4 November 2024

Winning Modern Wars through Adaptation

Mick Ryan

The ultimate test of military preparation and effectiveness does not end once a war begins. On the contrary, history strongly reflects the enduring phenomena of learning and implementing change during war as well…The requirement that a force must adapt while it is in combat is built into the inherent nature of war. Frank Hoffman, Mars Adapting: Military Change During War.

Throughout the war in Ukraine, the most important capability that Ukraine and Russia have employed and honed has been their ability to learn and adapt. This is an interactive fight because each side is learning based on the reactions of their adversary, and then finding and implementing solutions to improve their effectiveness against that enemy.

This process, which I have described as The Adaptation Battle, occurs at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. At its best, learning and adaptation takes evidence-based observations from the battlefield, shares them with the right analytical agencies, ensures the resulting lessons are then integrated into evolved training, doctrine, organisations, infrastructure, logistics and leadership models.

In many cases, adaptation is local or shared within a small community. And, in some cases, learning and adaptation does not improve the overall effectiveness of a military institution because the context or the situation has changed. There have been examples of all three approaches, from both Ukraine and Russia, since the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. But adaptation also occurs at multiple levels within military institutions, it occurs before and during wars, and it also takes place in corporate entites who have links to, or interests in, military organisations. Finally, adaptation takes place within enemy organisations as well as within allies.

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