Sina Azodi
Iran’s national security doctrine is rooted in the painful legacy of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. That conflict was marked by Iran’s international isolation, Iraq’s use of chemical weapons against Iranian troops and cities, and devastating shortages of military supplies. These experiences laid the groundwork for Iran’s “forward defense” strategy, built around three pillars: ballistic missiles and drones; support for regional nonstate actors; and a threshold nuclear capability. Each element of this strategy is designed to address vulnerabilities exposed during that war. However, the Israel-Hamas war has demonstrated the vulnerability of this strategy.
Recent Israeli operations against Iranian proxies, attacks within Iran’s own borders, and growing domestic calls to rethink its nuclear stance have presented Tehran with critical choices about the nuclear program’s strategic role. In recent months, two of the three pillars of Iran’s forward defense approach have been weakened in the face of Israelis’ demonstrable escalation dominance. Now the nuclear program is the only intact pillar, but the situation puts Tehran in a bind: Should it decide to cross the nuclear threshold, it could trigger a war with the United States and Israel.
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