Oscar Almén and Johan Englund
This is an executive summary of a research report that explores China’s future development and relations with the United States leading to 2050.1 It examines China’s potential trajectory in six key areas: demography, economy, politics, foreign policy, military, and technology.
Baseline scenario
The study outlines a baseline scenario based on the assumption that the current development continues without major disruptive changes. According to the scenario, by 2050, China, led by the Communist Party, has continued to develop its economic, military, and technological capabilities, as it has become the world’s largest economy. At the same time, China’s population, particularly the proportion of the working-age population, has declined. Together with the inability to implement necessary reforms, this causes economic development to stall, and China has not become the dominant world power. After Xi Jinping’s death, a power struggle ensues, followed by an expected return to a more collective leadership where the various factions within the party share power. Far-reaching authoritarian and controlling measures still govern China, but the end of Xi Jinping’s era of strong power concentration has partially eased repression. Towards 2050, China is a globally competitive and advanced technological power. However, it has yet to become a leading innovative actor spurring disruptive cutting-edge technology across the broad technological forefront.
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