George Friedman
The Middle East is in disarray, and it’s unclear if it can stabilize itself on its own. In many cases, a nation’s military can serve this function if it’s strong enough. But this is not one of those cases. Nations fighting for their lives require, have or crave that kind of power. The situation is such in the Middle East that it’s hard to see this happening, and it’s harder still to see the lesser powers involved acquiring the requisite influence to lay things to rest.
When I speak of military power, I do not mean the ability to launch airstrikes like the ones recently conducted by Israel. In the history of modern warfare, air power has been a valuable adjunct to combat but not a decisive one. The Japanese naval air force devastated Pearl Harbor and lost the war. The German Blitz on the United Kingdom killed many, as did the U.S. bombing of German cities. Whereas the Germans could not follow their strikes with an invasion, the Americans won the war with tanks. In Vietnam, Washington hammered Hanoi, but the light infantry of the Viet Cong ultimately won the day. Air power has many virtues, but it does not by itself win a war.
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